GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This new estimate more than doubles the 1.9 percent prediction issued in March. The upward revision was supported by stronger trade activity in the first half of the year, shifts in supply chains, and increased investment in artificial intelligence hardware. During the initial six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also anticipates merchandise trade to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A significant contributor to the improved trade figures was the demand for technology hardware. Goods associated with artificial intelligence accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth during the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other equipment used in building computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-related products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026, according to WTO estimates.
Energy markets and shipping sectors experienced notable disruptions during the same period. Crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the region fell by 47 percent. Nonetheless, increased shipments from other producing areas mitigated the overall decline in crude oil to roughly 6 percent globally. LNG exports worldwide dipped by about 1 percent. Meanwhile, global container throughput increased by 3.9 percent through July as trade rerouted across alternative suppliers, ports, and transportation routes.
Robust technology demand fuels enhanced goods trade
The outlook for services was less optimistic compared to merchandise trade. The WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for growth in commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. The sectors of transport and international travel experienced softer results amid disruptions affecting the Middle East. International tourist arrivals declined by 0.8 percent in the second quarter. For the first half of the year, arrivals remained 0.4 percent higher than the same period in 2025. Growth in international travel expenditures also slowed during the second quarter.
However, certain service categories continued to expand at faster rates. Exports of computer services rose 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, with an estimated 12 percent increase in the second quarter. Financial services exports grew by 14 percent from the previous year in the second quarter. The World Trade Organization predicts a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade for 2027 and also projects global GDP to increase by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by a 2.9 percent rise next year.
Asia sets the pace for regional export growth forecasts
Regional projections reveal significant differences in expected merchandise export performance. Asia is forecasted to achieve 9.9 percent export growth in 2026. North America is anticipated to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is expected to expand by 5.6 percent. South America’s exports are projected to increase by 3.4 percent. Conversely, Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the weakest outlook, with merchandise exports forecasted to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Forecasts for merchandise imports also vary considerably across regions. Asia is predicted to see import growth of 9.5 percent, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to rise by 1.4 percent, compared to Europe’s modest 0.5 percent growth. The Middle East’s merchandise imports are projected to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remarked that the latest trade figures demonstrate resilience while also highlighting uneven impacts from economic and geopolitical disruptions.