MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia has set an ambitious goal to produce approximately 2.8 million vehicles annually by 2035, according to its updated automotive industry development plan. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this target on Aug. 31 during a meeting dedicated to sector growth. The plan envisions vehicles for both local consumers and international markets, with Russia aiming for at least 80% of its new-vehicle market to be composed of domestically produced models by 2035.
The Russian government sanctioned the revised industry strategy on Aug. 24, extending the national framework through 2035. At the end of 2025, Russia’s manufacturing capacity for vehicles was around 3.3 million units per year. In that year, factories produced roughly 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization stood at 25% for passenger cars, 41% for light commercial vehicles, 35% for trucks, and 43% for buses.
Under this projection, Russia aims to manufacture 2.5 million passenger cars annually by 2035. Production will also include about 170,000 light commercial vehicles, 110,000 trucks, and 30,000 buses. The strategy allocates passenger-car output across four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicle production will span one or two platforms. The total new-vehicle market forecast for 2035 is approximately 3.2 million units, with imports making up to 20% of the market share.
Vehicle output spans multiple segments
A baseline scenario within the document suggests lower market and manufacturing volumes. This alternative projects annual vehicle production at about 1.69 million units in 2035, with the new-vehicle market estimated at roughly 2.2 million units for the same year. For 2030, the optimistic scenario anticipates a market size of around 2.4 million vehicles, whereas the baseline predicts approximately 2 million units.
Russia’s automotive development plan also establishes objectives for powertrain technology, autonomous driving features, and digital vehicle systems. Internal combustion engine vehicles are expected to account for between 67% and 83% of production in 2035, depending on the segment. The plan also aims for at least 25% of new passenger cars to be electric or hybrid models, and it calls for the production of about 150,000 vehicles equipped with Level 4 automation or higher by 2035.
Manufacturing capacity remains above current production levels
In 2025, passenger-car manufacturing capacity was approximately 2.8 million units, while actual production was about 700,000 vehicles. The capacity for light commercial vehicles was around 300,000 units, with production near 80,000. Truck capacity was roughly 130,000 units, and buses had a capacity close to 30,000. Electric vehicle production in 2025 reached about 4,400 units, slightly up from roughly 4,200 units produced the previous year.
The strategy also emphasizes wider adoption of standardized components and advanced technologies across vehicle platforms. It sets benchmarks for localization and technological independence for vehicles manufactured domestically. Covering passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous systems, and vehicle software, the framework aims for an annual production target of 2.8 million vehicles with an 80% share for the domestic market, supported by an action plan for implementation.