MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has authorized a long-term development strategy for its coal sector, establishing an annual output target of 662 million tonnes by 2050 in accordance with its projected scenario. This plan extends the country’s coal policy into the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia produced approximately 443 million tonnes of coal, making this new benchmark a significant upward revision from recent levels. The government approved the programme under Order No. 2606-r, issued on September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single fixed forecast, the programme outlines several potential production trajectories. Its primary scenario anticipates reaching 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, growing to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, and ultimately hitting 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals for the final year, with the stress scenario estimating 318.9 million tonnes, the conservative scenario reaching 460.8 million tonnes, and the inertial scenario approximating 586.4 million tonnes.
The plan also emphasizes long-term export ambitions. Under the main scenario, exports are expected to hit 266.7 million tonnes in 2030 and 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, eventually increasing to 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The programme additionally addresses domestic consumption, processing capacity, extraction methods, and regional production distribution.
Eastern regions take on a larger role in production
The government’s strategy designates Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East as key areas for increased coal output. These regions accounted for 48.3% of Russia’s total coal production in 2024. By 2050, their combined contribution is projected to be between 53.9% and 56.7% across different scenarios. Russia reports more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves, and the plan emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacity alongside developing new resource zones to meet future targets.
Coal extraction and processing methods are assigned distinct quantitative goals. In 2024, processed coal—excluding lignite—made up 58.9% of total output. The plan aims to increase this share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of Russia’s coal in 2024, with this share rising to between 82% and 85% under the long-term projections. The programme also incorporates initiatives targeting labor efficiency, technological advancements in mining, industrial safety, and environmental compliance.
Three phases guide the coal strategy through 2050
Russia intends to roll out its coal development plan in three distinct phases. The first phase, until 2030, focuses on short-term growth, industry development, and production initiatives. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will address processing capacities, coal utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase spans from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the plan’s implementation, coordinating with federal and regional agencies. Progress reports are required annually to be submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development, as mandated by the government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced the updated programme during a government session on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry strategy approved in 2020, which covered through 2035. Novak highlighted that the new plan projects a sixfold increase in the coal sector’s gross value added by 2050, with a broader multiplier effect estimated at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains aligned with the main scenario but represents just one of multiple possible development pathways.